Our latest view on the outlook for the UK economy and commercial property market.

  • The UK is continuing to emerge from the third set of national lockdowns. On 17th May, the second stage of the recovery roadmap was enacted in England, permitting indoor hospitality and leisure to resume operations once again. The postponed third stage of restriction easing in England and Wales – which dissolved the vast majority of social distancing measures – occurred on the 19th and 17th of July respectively, while Scotland has maintained some restrictions including the 12pm curfew for hospitality venues.
  • Covid-19 vaccinations continue to be administered across the UK, with 35.3 million people having received full two doses as of 14th July. So far, it appears the vaccination effort is helping to keep hospitalisations and deaths low despite the significant resurgence in case numbers to levels comparable with December 2020.
  • In Q1 2021, UK GDP was estimated to have contracted by 1.5% as the third national restrictions reduced activity. This is a significant improvement on the impact of the first Covid lockdown in Q2 2020 which saw GDP decline by 19.5%. Real GDP for Q1 2021 remains 8.7% below its level at the end of 2019.
  • The ONS reported that GDP grew by 0.8% in May 2021 month-on-month, considerably slower than the 2.3% observed in April. May’s figure incorporates the impact of the second stage of restriction easing on 17th May, which delivered 0.9% growth in the services sector, driven by a 37.1% increase in accommodation and food services output.

Economic and property market review July 2021

Economic and property market review June 2021

Economic and property market review May 2021

Economic and property market review April 2021

Economic and property market review Winter 2020/21

Economic and property market review Autumn 2020

Economic and property market review Summer 2020

Economic and property market review Spring 2020

Economic and property market review Winter 2019

Economic and property market review Autumn 2019

Economic and property market review Summer 2019

Economic and property market review Spring 2019

Economic and property market review Winter 2018

Economic and property market review Autumn 2018

Economic and property market review Summer 2018

Economic and property market review Spring 2018

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