Big Box bulletin

Review of Distribution Activity

Q4 2025

Positive Outlook for UK Big Box Market into 2026: 2025 Annual Take-Up Rises to Highest Level since 2022 as Confidence Improves.

The UK big box, Grade A logistics market recorded a 5.6% increase in take-up during 2025, reflecting strengthening occupier confidence throughout the year. Full-year performance saw take-up levels rise year-on-year, pointing to a more stable market going into 2026. Availability remains steady and continues to be skewed towards smaller unit sizes, supporting competitive conditions for larger space requirements. Investment activity showed signs of recovery towards year-end, whilst prime headline rents held firm following gains earlier in the year. The sector enters 2026 from a position of growing confidence and resilience.

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People, city, and money

A clear view of the market

Take-up of UK big box*, Grade A space increased on an annual basis in 2025, reaching 22.6 million sq ft, up 5.6% on 2024 levels, highlighting improving occupier confidence. While take-up softened in Q4 2025, totalling 2.7 million sq ft, 47.8% lower than Q4 2024 and the weakest quarterly performance of the year, activity for the whole year was at the highest level since 2022. The East Midlands remained the most active region, accounting for 31% of total take up. In Q4 2025, 3PL’s accounted for the highest share of space (58%) from significant lettings to JD Logistics, Roper Rhodes, and DP World.

In Q4 2025, availability edged up 2% to 56.4 million sq ft, reflecting a modest increase over the previous quarter. This was accompanied by a slight rise in the number of units on the market, which increased from 231 to 234, indicating a broadly stable supply position. Analysis of available stock shows that the supply pipeline remains weighted towards smaller units in the 100,000–399,999 sq ft range, which account for approximately 72% of all available units.

Big-box investment activity in 2025 was 15% lower than the previous year totalling £1.65 billion and 42% lower than the 5-year average. Positively though, in Q4 2025 transactions totalled £562 million representing a 32% increase on the previous quarter. While this uplift indicates an improvement in momentum, volumes were still 41% lower than Q4 2024.

At the end of the year prime headline rents held steady, building on the gains secured earlier in the year. With average increases of around 4% already recorded across the North West, Scotland and the South West in the first half of the year, the market continues to exhibit a high degree of stable resilience.

“The UK’s big box logistics market demonstrated notable resilience throughout 2025. Despite a year shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, persistent inflationary pressures and a delayed UK Budget, the sector delivered its strongest year of take-up since 2022, totalling just shy of 23 million sq ft. Occupier activity increased, compared to 2024, with around 11 million sq ft of deals completed in the second half of the year, marking the strongest H2 performance since 2022.

The East Midlands remained a key strategic location for occupiers and accounted for 31% of total take-up. Third-party logistics operators were the dominant driver of activity accounting for 41% of annual take-up as supply chain optimisation and long-term efficiency continued to shape occupier decision-making.

Although there is a substantial supply of industrial stock, it is heavily weighted towards smaller unit sizes which continues to limit options for those occupiers with larger space requirements. We expect competition for larger units, particularly in prime locations, to remain strong in 2026 which could result in rental uplifts where supply is constrained. Overall, the fundamentals of the UK big-box market remain strong, and we are confident that activity in 2026 will be similar or slightly better than in 2025.

David Willmer
Principal, Head of Industrial

David Willmer

  • Senior Analyst
  • Market Intelligence

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