Our latest view on the outlook for the UK economy and commercial property market.
The impact of Covid-19 will be the main driver of economic performance in the near term and we expect a dramatic decline in GDP during the course of Q2. Despite the monetary and fiscal measures being enacted to combat the economic fallout of the virus, it is strongly anticipated that the UK will enter a deep recession in 2020 which will exceed that observed in 2008-09 and indeed may surpass other historical crises. Among economists, there is a wide disparity on the case for the strength and speed of economic rebound.
Whilst political and economic focus is understandably centred on Covid-19, the UK has now entered the next phase of trade negotiations, following the official departure from the European Union on January 31st 2020. The already tight timeline set out will be stretched further as negotiations are forced to be resumed over video conferencing following a temporary pause. There remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding UK’s future relationship with EU.