Our latest view on the outlook for the UK economy and commercial property market.

  • The UK’s economic performance continues to be primarily driven by the impact of Coivd-19 and efforts to contain it. A resurgence in case numbers in the last weeks of 2020, with a significant spike in infections around the Christmas holiday period leading to a third national lockdown in England being enacted on 5th January 2021.
  • The ONS reported that GDP grew by 1.2% in December (consensus forecast was 1.3%), up from -2.6% in November, meaning there was 1% growth during Q4 2020. These figures amount to an annual decline of 9.9% across 2020 – the largest fall on record.
  • Inflation increased to 0.7% in January, up from 0.6% in December. Inflationary pressures came predominantly from recreation and culture prices as well as rising furniture and transport costs while clothing and footwear provided some deflationary off-setting.
  • In the three months to November 2020, the employment rate declined to 75.2% while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%. The ONS estimates that a total of 1.72 million people were categorised as unemployed in the UK from September to November, up 241,000 on Q2 and 411,000 compared to a year previous.
  • The UK and EU reached a last-minute Brexit deal just before Christmas, a milestone in the saga that began in June 2016, although not quite the final chapter. This removes a key downside risk for the economy and much of the uncertainty regarding the UK’s future relationship with the EU. There is also a potential economic upside from the ability to deploy domestic regulations and other policy tools in order to support growth.

Economic and property market review Winter 2020/21

Economic and property market review Autumn 2020

Economic and property market review Summer 2020

Economic and property market review Spring 2020

Economic and property market review Winter 2019

Economic and property market review Autumn 2019

Economic and property market review Summer 2019

Economic and property market review Spring 2019

Economic and property market review Winter 2018

Economic and property market review Autumn 2018

Economic and property market review Summer 2018

Economic and property market review Spring 2018

Key Contact

+44 (0)20 7911 2340