Commercial Real Estate Market Review

Our latest view on the outlook for the UK economy and commercial property market.

  • After the strong rebound for the UK economy in 2021, growth appears to have slowed in the face of rising inflation, supply chain problems and elevated geo-political risks. Moreover, policymakers are now taking steps that will inevitably slow growth, with the Bank of England hiking rates while the Treasury is increasing taxes, such as National Insurance. UK GDP grew q-on-q by 0.8% in Q1 2022, which lifted the economy to 0.7% above its pre-Covid level.
  • Nevertheless, the monthly breakdown of the data showed all the growth occurred in January, and February saw the economy stall. This was followed by a GDP contraction in March and April. We view the economy as currently in a period of slowdown, which will see isolated quarters where growth turns negative, but probably not a technical recession.
  • The Covid risk has fallen significantly in the UK, however this has coincided with the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. This has caused sharp rises in commodity prices and increased pressure on supply chains. It is too early to accurately judge the economic impact of the war, although typically high energy prices act as a brake on growth.
  • CPI inflation increased by 9.0% in the year to April 2022, up on 7.0% in March and the highest figure since the early 1980s. As in previous months energy and motor fuels contributed significantly to the rise in inflation. There is also evidence pubs, hotels and restaurants are passing on the VAT increase to customers, thus pushing up prices.

 

DOWNLOADS:

Economic and property market review June 2022

Economic and property market review May 2022

Economic and property market review April 2022

Economic and property market review March 2022

Economic and property market review February 2022

Economic and property market review January 2022

Economic and property market review December 2021

Economic and property market review November 2021

Economic and property market review October 2021

Economic and property market review September 2021

Economic and property market review August 2021

Economic and property market review July 2021

Economic and property market review June 2021

Economic and property market review May 2021

Economic and property market review April 2021

Economic and property market review Winter 2020/21

Economic and property market review Autumn 2020

Economic and property market review Summer 2020

Economic and property market review Spring 2020

Economic and property market review Winter 2019

Economic and property market review Autumn 2019

Economic and property market review Summer 2019

Economic and property market review Spring 2019

Economic and property market review Winter 2018

Economic and property market review Autumn 2018

Economic and property market review Summer 2018

Economic and property market review Spring 2018

Key Contact

+44 (0)20 7911 2340