Commercial Real Estate Market Review

Our latest view on the outlook for the UK economy and commercial property market.

  • After the strong rebound for the UK economy in 2021, growth appears to have slowed in the face of rising inflation, supply chain problems and geo-political events. Moreover, policymakers are now taking steps that will inevitably slow growth, with the Bank of England hiking rates. UK GDP grew q-on-q by 0.8% in Q1 2022, which lifted the economy to 0.7% above its pre-Covid level.
  • The spring and early summer has seen the economy move into a ‘stop, go’ patten, with GDP contracting in March and April, but with growth returning in May (up 0.5% month-on-month). It is likely GDP shrank in June, due to the extra bank holiday and the rail strikes. We view the economy as currently in a slowdown, which will see isolated quarters where growth turns negative, but probably not a technical recession.
  • The Covid risk has fallen significantly in the UK, however this has coincided with the war between Russia and Ukraine. This has caused volatility in commodity prices and increased pressure on supply chains. Evidence is building that the war is acting as a brake on growth in the UK, but not to the extent being seen in some central and east European nations.
  • CPI inflation increased by 9.4% in the year to June 2022, which is up marginally on May (9.1%) and the highest figure since the early 1980s. As in previous months energy and motor fuels contributed significantly to the rise in inflation.

 

DOWNLOADS:

Economic and property market review July 2022

Economic and property market review June 2022

Economic and property market review May 2022

Economic and property market review April 2022

Economic and property market review March 2022

Economic and property market review February 2022

Economic and property market review January 2022

Economic and property market review December 2021

Economic and property market review November 2021

Economic and property market review October 2021

Economic and property market review September 2021

Economic and property market review August 2021

Economic and property market review July 2021

Economic and property market review June 2021

Economic and property market review May 2021

Economic and property market review April 2021

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