The week ahead 09 March 2026 - The key question is: how long will the war last?
What to watch out for in the UK economy and property market this week.
The metric all economists are focused on now is the oil price. Brent crude cleared $91.00 a barrel on Friday afternoon, up from $72.20 a week earlier, and above the $75.50 peak seen during last year’s air strikes on Iran. Qatar’s energy minister warned last week that oil and gas production around the Persian Gulf could soon shutdown entirely.
Much now depends on how long the conflict runs. If the fighting drags on, and oil becomes anchored at current prices, the world is looking at both higher inflation and an economic slowdown. The USA is holding mid-term elections in November, with all the seats in the House of Representatives going to the polls. Under normal circumstances one would expect the US President to want to avoid anything that might hit prices and jobs in an election year. However, the current White House is notoriously unpredictable.
The latest US labour market figures suggest it is a high-risk time for Trump to be putting pressure on the economy. Non-farm payrolls fell by -92,000 jobs in February, undershooting Wall Street forecasts of a rise of 59,000. The data for December and January was also revised downwards. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in February, up from 4.3% in January.
In the UK, the Chancellor delivered her Spring Statement last week, and avoided controversy by focussing on the latest economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). There was a downgrade for GDP growth for 2026, but also upwards revisions for 2027 and 2028. The OBR increased its estimate for the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom from £21.7 billion previously to £23.6 billion. At a time when the financial markets are nervous, an upgrade for this closely-watched metric was well timed. Our full analysis of the Spring Statement can be found here.
This week sees data released on US inflation and UK GDP growth.
We are predicting no change for US inflation, which when set alongside the disappointing labour market figures last week, would normally tee up a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, given the rise in oil prices and the high risks surrounding the economy, the likelihood of interest rate cuts is now retreating for all nations.
Strong survey evidence for January persuades us that the UK GDP growth figures will be robust. However, the data tells where the economy was two months ago, and due to all the risks mentioned above, we are now in a very different environment.
This week’s figures
WEDNESDAY 11 March
US CPI Inflation, y-on-y, February
2.4% PREVIOUS
2.4% FORECAST
With the labour market and economy slowing we believe inflationary pressures are in check, so are predicting no change in the rate of inflation.
FRIDAY 6 March
UK GDP Growth, m-on-m, January
0.1% PREVIOUS
0.2% FORECAST
The data we have so far on January points to a pick-up in activity. Consequently, we are forecasting an uptick in GDP growth in January, driven by stronger manufacturing and consumer spending figures.
