The week ahead 12 January 2026 - Consumers take out more debt
What to watch out for in the UK economy and property market this week.
The latest Bank of England data showed consumers borrowed an additional £2.1 billion in November 2025, up from £1.7 billion in October and well above the £1.2 billion in November 2024. Forecasters had been predicting £1.1 billion. Most of the increase was on credit cards, but other forms of consumer borrowing, like car loans, were up too. Consumer credit data is typically volatile and difficult to analyse, as increased spending on credit cards might indicate confidence in the outlook, or it could mean households are struggling to make ends meet.
However, data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders shows better-than-expected car sales in December, suggesting consumers are feeling confident enough to make big ticket purchases. UK new car sales grew by 3.9% in December 2025 compared to a year ago, defying a consensus forecast of a fall of -1.0%. Sales growth was entirely driven by electric and hybrid vehicles. This is a reminder that we in the property industry need to think of the real estate implications of a future world where electric vehicles dominate, and charging infrastructure needs to be widely available.
Turning to foreign news, Eurozone inflation slowed from 2.1% in November to 2.0% in December; while the unemployment rate declined from 6.4% in October to 6.3% in November. These figures increase the likelihood that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged this year.
In the US, last week saw some mixed data on the labour market. Non-farm payrolls increased by just 50,000 jobs in December, less than the 70,000 that Wall Street was predicting. Also, the November figure was revised down from 64,000 previously to 56,000. On a more positive note, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, from 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December.
This week sees GDP data for the UK released for November 2025. Other data has shown a slowdown for the economy running up to the Budget in November, so we are predicting a negative number. The question now is, how much of a post-Budget rebound will there be in the subsequent months?
Also, out this week are figures on Euro Area industrial production for November. Thanks to sharp interest rate cuts by the ECB in 2024 and 2025, we are forecasting continued growth.
This week's figures
Thursday 15 January
UK GDP Growth, 3m-on-3m, November 2025
-0.1% previous
-0.1% forecast
Survey evidence pointed to a continued slowdown for the UK economy in November, as businesses and consumers went into ‘wait-and-see’ mode ahead of the Chancellor’s Budget. We are forecasting a small contraction.
Thursday 8 January
Euro Area Industrial Production, m-on-m, November 2025
0.8% previous
0.3% forecast
The economic environment is looking more stable in the Eurozone, based on recent data, so we are predicting another rise in industrial production, but at a slower pace than in October.
