The week ahead 13 October 2025 - September car sales highest since 2020
What to watch out for in the UK economy and property market this week.
The UK car industry has faced a lot of setbacks this year, although last week saw some more encouraging news. Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed nearly 313,000 new car were sold in September 2025, up 13.7% on a year earlier. That marked the best September for car sales since 2020. Purchases by company vehicle fleets were up 16.9%, while retail sales increased by 8.9%. This is an encouraging sign for the broader economy, as it shows both firms and consumers are not being deterred from making large purchases, despite the recent economic slowdown.
The SMMT figures also revealed buoyant demand for electric cars, which saw record sales in September. The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles has implications for real estate, such as including charging infrastructure in future property development schemes.
2025 has been a rollercoaster year for global financial markets, although it is worth noting the performance of the large cap equity indices. Since 1st January, the FTSE100 index has risen by 15.1%, the US S&P 500 index by 14.8% and Germany’s Dax 40 by 19.9%. The one-month growth figures are: FTSE 100 2.9%, S&P 500 3.4% and Dax40 3.8%. Often the property market, when thinking of the financial markets, focuses on bond yields (which have had a difficult year), but 2025 has been a year of growth for equities. This shows investors are not at present entirely risk averse.
A developing news story is the US Federal governmentshutdown. This has happened before, and it usually doesnot have a sudden economic impact. However, the longershutdown continues, the more the wider economy willfeel the effects. Last week, over a quarter of a millionFederal employees did not receive their pay cheques, andthat will rise to two million this week.
This week sees data on GDP and the labour market for the UK released.
For GDP, the survey indicators for August were fairly robust. However, it is apparent there are pockets of persistent underperformance in the UK economy, such as manufacturing and the North Sea oil and gas fields. These weaker industries in our opinion probably acted as a brake on aggregate GDP growth in August. So, we are expecting some growth, but at a relatively weak pace.
As we move closer to the government’s autumn budget, where tax rises are looking inevitable, firms and consumers might delay spending, resulting in marginal GDP growth in the next few months.
The UK labour market figures have gradually weakened in 2025, although not to an extent that is cause for alarm. While recent data has pointed to a levelling off for the unemployment rate, we would not be surprised to see some further deterioration later this year if concerns over the strength of the economy deter businesses from recruiting.
This week's figures
Tuesday 14 October
UK Unemployment Rate, August
4.7% previous
4.7% forecast
The unemployment rate reached 4.7% in May, and remained at that level in June and July. Survey evidence points to a reluctance to recruit by firms, but up to now companies have mostly avoided big layoffs. So, our prediction for August is for no change.
Thursday 16 October
UK GDP, 3 months to August
0.2% previous
0.2% forecast
Business surveys suggest the economy grew in August, with good weather buoying consumer-facing industries. Consequently, we are forecasting a slow rate of growth in the three months to August.
