The week ahead 30 March 2026 - UK consumer confidence down, but better than expected
What to watch out for in the UK economy and property market this week.
The UK consumer confidence index registered a fall in March to -21, down from -19 in February, as households turned cautious following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. However, forecasters had been predicting -24 for March. Also, at the start of the Ukraine War, the index fell harder – from -19 in January 2022 to -26 in February 2022. So, while down, consumer confidence is perhaps showing more resilience this time around. The survey revealed growing reluctance to make big ticket purchases.
Last week also saw the release of UK retail sales figures for February (so pre-war data), which, like the consumer confidence numbers, showed a fall in activity, but by less than was expected by analysts. The annual growth rate slowed from 4.8% in January (buoyed by discounting) to 2.5% in February, although the consensus forecast was for 2.1%. Poor weather in February probably impacted sales for shops. There was a month-on-month decline in motor fuel sales in February, which bodes ill for the March figures, given the recent rise in petrol prices.
The UK PMI business activity index fell from 53.7 in February to 51.0 in March, which was below the consensus forecast of 52.9. The convention of the index is that a reading above 50 indicates the commercial side of the economy is expanding, so it is encouraging that the index is still pointing to growth, just at a slower pace. Firms participating in the survey reported a fall in new work, and expressed concerns about the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Last week saw continued volatility for UK gilt yields and interest rate swaps.
In the USA, the national average petrol price reached $3.98 a gallon last Thursday, up from $2.98 just a month ago. Some commentators say that when petrol exceeds $4.00 a gallon it becomes politically damaging for the US government. In California, petrol stood at $5.84 a gallon.
This week sees a raft of data released on the US labour market, which was slowing before the war. Signs of a further deterioration could increase pressure on the White House to switch its attention back to domestic issues.
Also, figures are out on UK house prices for March. Mortgage rates have risen since the war broke out, and March is often a slow month for the market, so we believe house price growth probably slowed.
This week's figures
Tuesday 31 March
UK Nationwide House Price Index, y-on-y, March
1.0% previous
0.8% forecast
The war has prompted hikes in mortgage rates and hit consumer sentiment, so we are expecting a deceleration in the house price growth rate. April will be a bigger test of market resilience as activity usually picks up around Easter.
Tuesday 31 March
US Job Openings, February
6.9m previous
6.7m forecast
While the January numbers for job openings were stronger-than-expected, we believe that was a one-off. We are forecasting a decline for February, driven by a slowing economy and uncertainty on the outlook.
Friday 3 April
US Non-Farm Payrolls, March
-92k previous
30k forecast
In the last 9 months, the payroll figures have alternated between negative and positive on a monthly basis. While we are expecting a positive number for March, the 30k we are predicting is low by historic standards.
