Tale of Two Cities – Manhattan and Central London Office Supply Trends

Manhattan and Central London supply trends have largely tracked one another over the last 10-years, unsurprising given both cities exposure to global economic shifts and evolving workplace behaviour. 

Whilst levels in New York are markedly higher, levels are on a clear downward trajectory falling to 15% from 18% a year earlier and marking the lowest level since 2020. 

In London, increases since the pandemic have been comparatively modest, peaking at 8.2% in 2022. Through 2025, levels stabilised around 6.8%, only marginally above the 10-year average.

The sharper decline seen in Manhattan since 2024, relative to London, can partially be attributed to a stronger recovery in physical office attendance, which is influenced by occupier mix. The finance sector, which has arguably been the loudest in its calls to return to the office has a larger presence in Manhattan, taking a 35% share of demand over the last five years, compared with London at 24%.

Driven by elevated build and financing costs, the delivery of new schemes over the next two to three years is expected to fall short of long-term average levels, particularly in core well connected submarkets. This coupled with healthy occupier demand will continue to fuel strong rental growth going forward.

* Due to differences in local reporting practices, Manhattan data displays availability rates rather than vacancy rates